Look back on this later
Memorial Day weekend, 2007 - a good time to write a few things down for future reference. So far, Bush and friends have got everything they want in terms of foreign policy, so the praise or blame falls squarely on their shoulders.
In the not too distant future, someone else will be in charge of the USA. Maybe President McCain, maybe President Clinton. Maybe the Democrats will control Congress. Maybe the GOP. I don’t know. But what I do know is that some terrible terrible Middle East shit is going to go down, and people are going to start pointing fingers when it does. And when that sad day arrives, I want you to look back at this little report before you succumb to the siren song of revisionist history.
Iraq
When we pull out of Iraq, it is going to be a bloodbath regardless of when it happens, ten days or ten years from now. So let’s start there. We swiftly defeated Iraq’s conventional army and secured the oilfields. A civil war erupted and US forces are caught in the middle of it. A “surge” of 30,000 troops was sent to calm things down, and for a couple months the violence raged, but at a lower level. But the trend reversed. Now we are seeing a record level of sectarian killings, and US troops are being killed at a higher rate too. One US General in Iraq called the troop levels insufficient and requires more soldiers.
What to know
As of today, there is no definition of what constitutes victory. “Metrics” are still being developed. The bad news is that we have no measurable objectives to work towards. The good news is that we can define victory however we want.
The surge was discouraged by everybody from Rumsfield to the Iraq War Study group. Even original proponents of the surge said that more than double the number of troops would be needed, and surge this small would not work
The Iraq Study Group’s recommendations were not implemented.
Afganistan
Our initial successes are being undone. The Taliban is growing stronger and is moving against US and Afganistan forces in greater numbers. The reversal came about after huge amounts of troops and support were shifted from Afganistan to Iraq.
Osama Bin Laden and Mullah Omar remain free.
What to know
International aid donations have not materialized as promised.
The Taliban operate with impunity just over the border in Pakistan.
Pakistan
Pakistan gets $1 billion per year from the USA per year to fight the Taliban and Al Queda in their territory of Waziristan. But they signed peace deal with Waziristan and no longer conduct operations there. (Don’t worry, they still get our paid). Most Al Queda plots aimed at the USA and US interests originate in this part of Pakistan.
What to know
Pakistan has nukes, no democracy and lots of people who support Bin Laden
North Korea
While the USA focused on the nonexistent WMD’s in Iraq, North Korea developed nuclear weapons. Only afterwards did the US begin negotiating with North Korea. We are still negotiating
What to know
North Korea has nukes
North Korea is broke and sells weapons to anyone with money
Iran
Iran appears to be sending weapons and troops over the border to fight in Iraq.
Iran is developing nuclear weapons. We are negotiating with Iran.
There is a US Carrier group sitting off the Iranian shore, conducting “training missions.”
Other players
Palestine is in flames as Hamas and Fatah battle each other. The elected Hamas government is broke, because the world (except for Iran and Saudi Arabia) stopped handing them big piles of money when they elected a group of terrorists to run things. Still the Palestinians cast themselves as the victims and blame the USA and Israel for their own civil war.
Syria is supporting and arming forces in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.
Egypt is stable and gets tremendous financial support from the USA, but its population almost universally dislikes America and supports killing Americans in the Middle East. Keep an eye on Egypt.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are vying for power and influence in the Middle East. They both support groups battling the USA and Israel, but are starting to move against the other’s interests too.
Saudi Arabia is experiencing a small, but growing insurgency. These insurgents are the same people who learned their extreme Wahabi Islam at Saudi sponsored schools.
One more thing. The 911 Commission's recommendations were all but ignored.
So when we pull out of Iraq and the Iraqis start killing one another in earnest, or when Iran invades Iraq, or when Israel nukes Iran, or Osama Bin Laden sets off a North Korean nuke on Long Island, or the Taliban retake Afganistan, come back to this page and remember where we were today before you point your finger.